What in your view, in material terms, will the collapsed US/Europe look like? Will most people be reduced to subsistence levels under the authoritarian control of our current oligarchy? Will it resemble feudalism? Will those who come from foreign lands become the masters and impose Shariah law or will the entire enterprise be indirectly controlled by China?
Thanks for the comment and for the support! I'm still figuring all this out, so sorry for my delayed reply. Here are three thoughts:
a) De-industrialisation would be very difficult to accomplish, but de-growth--much lower standards of living, tenuous supply chains, unstable power grids--seems almost certain in the years to come, especially in Europe. There's certainly a potential feudal dynamic, in that in these situations, local overlords who control the power grid for instance could have immense power.
b) In North America/Europe, I can imagine local Shariah or tribal conflicts imported from elsewhere in the world (status quo?). But I find it harder to imagine the expansion of the caliphate in these ways, to name one example. This was probably one of the great mistakes we made in the early 2000s, assuming global power to Islamic states when they were regional actors.
c) China on the other hand...it seems like the government has skilfully positioned itself for control of key industries or materially strategic points (investment in ports, for instance).
What I'd like to see is more research done on the material components required to make our civilisation function. I suspect like the building artillery shells brouhaha of 2022-present we will see massive vulnerabilities exposed that other powers have thought about and gained an advantage.
A friend just recommend this book but I haven't read it yet:
What in your view, in material terms, will the collapsed US/Europe look like? Will most people be reduced to subsistence levels under the authoritarian control of our current oligarchy? Will it resemble feudalism? Will those who come from foreign lands become the masters and impose Shariah law or will the entire enterprise be indirectly controlled by China?
Thanks for the comment and for the support! I'm still figuring all this out, so sorry for my delayed reply. Here are three thoughts:
a) De-industrialisation would be very difficult to accomplish, but de-growth--much lower standards of living, tenuous supply chains, unstable power grids--seems almost certain in the years to come, especially in Europe. There's certainly a potential feudal dynamic, in that in these situations, local overlords who control the power grid for instance could have immense power.
b) In North America/Europe, I can imagine local Shariah or tribal conflicts imported from elsewhere in the world (status quo?). But I find it harder to imagine the expansion of the caliphate in these ways, to name one example. This was probably one of the great mistakes we made in the early 2000s, assuming global power to Islamic states when they were regional actors.
c) China on the other hand...it seems like the government has skilfully positioned itself for control of key industries or materially strategic points (investment in ports, for instance).
What I'd like to see is more research done on the material components required to make our civilisation function. I suspect like the building artillery shells brouhaha of 2022-present we will see massive vulnerabilities exposed that other powers have thought about and gained an advantage.
A friend just recommend this book but I haven't read it yet:
https://www.amazon.com/Material-World-Materials-Modern-Civilization/dp/0593534344/ref=sr_1_1?crid=35XL1OIPKJL57&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.QGgC38u1RZ5XRlAH-OGlh8rTDEm73T0dSZaNrvMqMwxFPv6Xu3FU8ggxXiJi_w9G1q2htmSMsOs6bO2WqM1_ebZP39yjit-1UTpoRnXdt3TOA-cv3l5f87yblxiA26P6RP1w814Zr4WO_Rs2LBbk2A.lW6Q1MYXs6WNJY3283keBnTt_bGzoqIphxHP_UfQAK4&dib_tag=se&keywords=material+world+ed+conway&qid=1727749196&sprefix=ed+material+%2Caps%2C217&sr=8-1